Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

931
FXUS65 KBYZ 102038
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
138 PM MST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Weak disturbances bring rain/snow showers to western areas late
  this afternoon and more widespread showers Tuesday.

- Periods of increased winds over the western foothills through
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The rest of today through Tuesday...

A shortwave moving through this afternoon into tonight will bring
a 25-50% chance of showers over the west, with light snow
expected over the mountains and higher foothills and light rain
over lower elevations. Currently, the forecast is for 1-3 inches
of snow over the mountains and generally a less than 10% chance of
greater than 0.1" of precipitation over lower elevations.

Into Monday, high pressure will build over the region, keeping
conditions mostly dry and highs above normal. Winds are expected
to increase over the western foothills Monday afternoon as flow
amplifies ahead of the next approaching system. Currently near
Livingston, there is a 50% chance of winds greater than 50 mph and
a 20% chance of winds greater than 60 mph. Otherwise, gusts over
the west will generally be in the 25-45 mph range.

The next weather system arrives Tuesday morning with a cold front,
and brings a better chance for more widespread precipitation.
Currently beginning Tuesday morning, there is a 20-50% chance of
rain over lower elevations west and south of Miles City, although
accumulations are still generally expected to be less than 0.1".
For the mountains, there is a 40% chance over the Bighorns and a
60% chance over the Beartooth/Absarokas of at least 3 inches of
snow through Tuesday night. Behind the cold front, conditions are
expected to remain breezy over the region, with gusts around 20
to 40 mph common.

High temperatures Monday will be in the 50s to low 60s, decreasing
to upper 40s to low 50s Tuesday. Archer


Tuesday night through Sunday...

Tuesday night will still be breezy over the western foothills
with gusts to 30-35 mph. Furthermore, winds will strengthen in
the Livingston and Beartooth Foothills as the sea-level pressure
gradient increases between surface high pressure over northwest WY
and lowering pressure over central MT. There is a 60% chance of
wind gusts over 50 mph at Livingston after midnight Tuesday night.
Otherwise, Tuesday night should be dry for much of the area as
subsidence on the western side of a 500 mb shortwave trough moves
over our area.

As dry and warmer conditions return Wednesday, winds will be
elevated along the western foothills through the day and night. At
this time, the Livingston to Nye area has a high chance of seeing
wind gusts over 50 mph and a moderate to high chance of seeing
wind gusts over 58 mph, with the time of strongest winds likely to
be Wednesday evening. On Thursday, the winds will gradually back
off through the day. As these winds back off, the chance of
precipitation returns to the mountains (overall low chance). By
the weekend, ensembles are in good agreement in another 500 mb trough
moving through the region. The extent of impacts remains
uncertain, but cooler temperatures with an increased chance of
precipitation is in the forecast for now. Arends/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...


Isolated to scattered showers (15 to 50% chance, greatest in the
mountains) will occur west of KBIL late this afternoon into this
evening. There will be areas of mountain obscuration through this
evening in clouds and showers. Then HREF shows that there is an
approximately 40% chance of patchy fog mainly from about 09z
through 15z Monday morning for much of the area northeast of the
Beartooth/Absaroka and Bighorn Mountains. Otherwise, VFR will
prevail. Winds will be northwesterly and breezy over southeast MT
this afternoon with gusts to 20 kt, then switch to northeasterly
around 00z Monday with gusts to 20-25 kt over portions of south
central MT. After 06z Monday, winds will decrease over south
central MT but turn southeasterly over southeast MT with some
gusts to 25 kt. Beginning around 16z Monday, winds will strengthen
near KLVM with some gusts to 40 kt during the day Monday. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/061 040/051 028/054 036/058 031/048 030/043 025/047
    10/B    04/W    00/U    00/U    12/W    33/W    00/B
LVM 033/060 033/047 025/050 033/052 027/046 024/040 020/043
    30/N    26/W    00/N    21/N    14/W    63/J    12/J
HDN 030/061 033/050 025/055 032/059 027/050 027/043 022/049
    10/U    05/W    10/U    00/U    01/B    34/W    11/B
MLS 031/058 031/053 028/054 032/058 028/053 028/042 022/047
    10/U    01/E    00/U    00/B    01/B    23/W    10/U
4BQ 033/060 033/053 029/054 033/059 029/053 028/042 024/048
    00/U    02/W    10/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    10/U
BHK 026/049 030/051 026/052 029/058 027/053 026/043 021/047
    10/N    01/N    10/U    00/U    00/B    12/W    10/U
SHR 029/065 032/052 023/055 030/058 026/051 024/043 020/050
    00/U    06/W    20/U    00/U    01/B    24/W    11/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings