Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS65 KBYZ 250108
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
708 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry today. Small chance of a strong to severe
  thunderstorms over far south-eastern Montana this afternoon and
  evening (1/5 risk from the Storm Prediction Center).

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Friday into
  next week. Best periods for potentially more widespread
  precipitation are next Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Near normal temperatures (80s and 90s) expected into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday Night...

Higher heights building into the region have allowed temperatures
to climb into the upper 70s and 80s early this afternoon. Weak
energy lifting into the region from the southwest has allowed a
few thunderstorms to develop over the southern Bighorn Mountains
and adjacent foothills. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible
this afternoon and evening, mainly over the Bighorns into far
southeast MT. A storm or two could be strong to severe with CAPE
values upwards of 1500 J/kg and deep layer shear of 25-40kts. The
main threats with any strong thunderstorm look to be hail and
strong winds, with heavy rain being a secondary threat. By late
this evening into tonight, a low level jet will then increase over
southeast MT. With elevated instability, this may allow for a few
showers and thunderstorms to linger into the overnight period in
southeast MT (10-20 percent chance).

Warmer conditions arrive for Friday with temperatures in the 80s
to middle 90s. By afternoon, a wave moving into the area through
southwest flow will bring another period of isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms (15-30 percent chance) during the
afternoon and evening. Most convection will be high-based, with
gusty winds possible, with the potential for a storm or two over
northeastern areas to be strong to severe where CAPE and shear are
a bit better. STP



Saturday through Thursday...
The long term forecast will feature a persistent pattern with 500
mb troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and high heights over the
southern CONUS. This will put Montana in southwest flow over the
period, a favorable pattern for severe weather. Persistent
southeasterly winds over the plains will keep above normal
moisture over the region. The ECMWF Ens is indicating PWAT values
of 100-150% of normal for much of the period. These conditions
will lead to persistent above normal instability as indicated by
the ECMWF EFI tables. These factors show that an active pattern is
likely. Long term convective outlooks agree with this active
assessment in indicating daily thunderstorm chances.

Temperatures are expected to be seasonal throughout the period
with temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s F. Torgerson
&&

.AVIATION...

Updated Aviation Discussion...Isolated convection is expected
from Sheridan county northeast into Carter county, mainly through
04z this evening. Local MVFR visibility is possible near
precipitation cores with this activity along with wind gusts to
40kts. A southerly low level jet could bring additional isolated
showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, overnight into Friday
morning. An area of stratus may develop (30% chance) over Carter
and possibly into Fallon county in the early morning hours also
associated with the southerly low level winds, with MVFR ceilings.
Outside of the above, VFR conditions will prevail through the day
Friday. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/093 061/092 059/089 060/088 061/086 062/086 061/086
    02/T    11/U    21/U    11/U    22/T    33/T    32/T
LVM 053/090 052/090 052/087 051/088 053/086 054/085 054/087
    02/T    22/T    23/T    21/U    11/U    23/T    32/T
HDN 060/094 058/092 058/090 059/090 059/087 061/088 060/088
    02/T    11/U    21/U    11/U    21/B    33/T    31/B
MLS 063/096 063/095 064/092 064/088 062/086 063/085 062/086
    12/T    11/U    31/B    21/U    41/B    33/T    41/B
4BQ 063/094 063/094 062/091 063/090 063/085 063/083 062/083
    22/T    11/U    21/U    11/U    32/T    53/T    42/T
BHK 060/093 061/095 060/089 060/084 058/081 058/080 057/080
    22/T    21/U    31/U    11/U    51/B    42/T    32/W
SHR 058/092 057/090 055/090 056/089 056/085 057/085 056/085
    22/T    11/B    11/U    00/U    12/T    34/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings